Revolution in Ukraine

[Bronshtein]

I was referring to Putin's interests in Ukraine - not Crimea specifically.

I just find it interesting that someone who claims to be genuinely neutral, isn't. And that they hate the CIA, the best friend of another state they often defend.

Who said I hated them? I think they do some brilliant stuff - not as good as NSA but okay. I confess its not their fault they are led by idiots in the State Dept. I don't know who led them to do this but they were involved. And whoever worked out what would happen got it wrong. Not the first time.

It would be nice to see Brohny contribute more on here in terms of miniatures and wargames to add to the rather dull repetition he gives otherwise.

Sorry for clogging this up Dags, I'll slope off and leave this one to die.

[Bronshtein]

I do love Bronstein's total belief in the capabilities of the CIA.

My point was that any fucking idiot can foment a revolution in the right circumstances but nobody worked out what might happen afterwards

They apparently not only managed to ferment revolution on a huge proportion of the population,

How many do you think?

which consisted of vastly differing socio/political leanings, but orchestrated an unarmed take over of the Govt.

Not so sure about the unarmed comrade - looked like a lot of violence on both sides to me

Amazing. Obviously it couldn't have been a populist uprising of the European leaning majority caused by the South American levels of corruption and blatant pro Russian stance of the Leadership,

to quote the Murdoch Press

that would be way too far fetched.

I'd be more inclined to believe it if I didn't know what organisations like the American Center for International Labor Solidarity do on the side.

It's the same level of conspiracy theory logic as the "CIA killed Kennedy" horseshit.

Except Allen Dulles didn't share a platform with Lee Oswald and Jack Ruby before the shooting.

Hang on, I've worked it out, Bronshtein is in fact a pseudonym for Oliver Stone. Can I just say that I loved Wall Street and Salvador Mr Stone, great movies.

Thanks. You know, I always preferred Platoon myself.

[mcfonz]

I think it's pretty debatable who succeeded and who failed.

Putin wanted Ukraine. Not as part of Russia necessarily, but as a Russian backed state - largely subject to their influence.

He has ended up with the Crimea, an area arguably already easily influenced by Russia and with a Russian presence in the form of their navy.

Europe wanted Ukraine to be able to operate freely and be able to choose and possibly work towards being a committed member of Europe. It has protocols to follow for good reason.

At this stage it arguably hangs in the balance but it's likely that the Ukraine will seek some sort of protection from the EU and eventually become part of it.

But with any given dispute is there really any 'winner'?

The problem is that you side so animatedly with Russia and yet you shun western media. You can't possibly take a balanced view of the situation without taking in a broad selection of media and trying to make some sense out of it.

One of the reasons this all kicked off was because off accusations of corruption due to the decision to turn down the European package. Have you looked into which of these two the Ukrainian parliament preferred? Which of the two deals the majority of the Ukrainian populace wanted? I suspect that when the suspicions were raised they sought outside help - as in the CIA. Why? Perhaps because they don't have a decent intelligence service of their own, or they were concerned that they were also under the paycheck of Russian influence - just like the 'elite' troops that through bravery started shooting protesters.

The Russian presence in the Crimea wasn't as obvious as it was but there were definitely photo's circulating before the toppling on unknown, masked and un-marked troops.

Mark my words, the Russians had as much influence if not more on the ground in the Ukraine than you are giving them credit for.

[Roger Theloger]

Russia offered $17bn with strings attached.

West offered $1bn with EU friendship, and "Western freedom"

US politicians stood with crowds calling to overthrow existing government without an election.... if Russia did that in the France, Europe would have a fit.

If Ukrainian parliament had been dissolved and a democratic election after a suitable time called would Russia have objected? Would they have felt forced to occupy/take/bribe the Crimea to protect their fleet and its home?

I can see both sides of the argument, neither side did it right. Its a mess.

[Bronshtein]

Mcfonz
I don't think the people of Ukraine - Russian, Ukrainian or Tatar will be winners.

If I seem to shun western media and be one sided, its because all the 'balance' is the other way. When do you (the western public - not you personally) hear the other side of the coin? When does the NED (set up to prevent the US public getting antsy about the CIA funnelling tax dollars to pro-US 'dissidents' in a non- accountable manner) get a lot of publicity about where the money sent to support 'Labour groups' overseas really goes? Given the US establishment's love of unions?

I don't need to balance my comments - the 'balance' is already about 100-1 against the point of view I have put out to start with.

And no we aren't talking about CIA involvement after the thing started, we're talking about ten(or more?) years ago - when Ukraine was still electing Communists, and onward to now.

I do not side with Russia.

All I am saying is I expect the west to be better than Russia. A GOC in Ireland said in a conference - 'It's time to terrorise the terrorists'. Well frankly - no it fucking isn't. That way you end working for a terrorist state and wondering where to hide the bodies. If that's how people react to threats to democracy - then they have abandoned it themselves. We shouldn't be destabilising elected governments - unless they are doing something so monstrous they have forfeited the right that election gave them - a point Yanukovych had not reached until, if at all, he was pushed to it by our actions.

[mcfonz]

No disagreements with that Roger.

But going on recent history, could you blame the Ukrainians from being wary of a deal with Russia? Also this silly thing Brony has about hypocrisy when he is happy to base it upon supposition and then state he want's facts before making judgments on other things.

As for Yanukovych - again, look at what the Ukrainian parliament wanted. I am not entirely clear on it at this point, but judging by their reaction to the deal with Russia - it was not that. I'd say that if Yanukovych took it upon himself to rely upon the backing of Crimea - or a minority to make that decision it is understandable that there was outcry and furthered suspicions of corruption.

If you are allowed 'educated guesses' then I'll stake mine - should someone look into the funding on Yanukovych's political campaign and party I wonder how much of it could be traced back to Russia via intermediaries etc? He was unpopular and the target of accusations before any of the recent issues kicked off.

All I am saying is that I have no expectations, I live in hope that the countries of this world make better decisions for themselves and each other. Russia included. Russia is capable of great actions but Putin's track record is pretty shocking and this only goes to further the reputation he appears keen to build.

Sure, you could argue that the 'west' should do better. So far you appear to muddy up the USA, CIA and Europe. Europe is probably not entirely innocent but my guess is that every European nation has agents floating around in other countries all of the time. I somewhat doubt the EU could directly sanction covert operations due to conflicting interests but who knows? Outwardly the EU has done pretty much what their protocols allow. They have condemned from a distance, in-placed sanctions, politically attacked Russia and diplomatically shunned them.

Like others have said, bar war what more can they do? Russia would react in an instant and there would be little of the Ukraine left to debate about afterwards. Russia would be happy to plow it into the ground and start again.

So then you have America. Are you really surprised at their underhand tactics? It's what they deploy in the middle east and in the other enemies on their hit list. They support political parties with the hope they turn out to be more co-operative than their predecessors and introduce their brand of democracy, when it doesn't work out they return again after a decade to rinse and repeat. How many recent 'enemies' have been supported by the USA at some point in their lives?

And lastly 'better' depends on what version of the world you prefer. The issue I can see is that the majority of the Ukrainian people did not want to deal with Russia - they deemed the offer from the EU to be 'better'. Russia then sort more influence at the same time as telling the USA and Europe to nark off - there is your hypocrisy.

Who has behaved better? Have the USA, EU or Russia behaved 'better'? If you want them to behave in ways you deem better why not say what you would have done that is 'better'? Rather than defend who you clearly perceive to have behaved better to type.

At the end of the day, sometimes this world can be a fucking horrible place and being 'better' sometimes means just being one up from someone else.

[Bronshtein]

And lastly 'better' depends on what version of the world you prefer. The issue I can see is that the majority of the Ukrainian people did not want to deal with Russia - they deemed the offer from the EU to be 'better'.

And that is my concern in a nutshell.
How do you know the 'majority' wanted the EU?
You can't.
No-one can.
There was a vote where Yanukovych won - a free, fair, informed, observed by neutrals, vote. Everyone knew he needed to negotiate a deal somewhere for fuel and general economic development. They probably had a pretty good idea of where he would look for a deal.

He negotiated - that's what elected leaders do - and nearly got the deal with the EU but they laid down conditions - basically to overturn a legal decision - that were outwith his jurisdiction. He couldn't deliver and they drove him into Putin's arms.

No-one - not you, not, me, not the EU, the USA, the Ukrainian people or the Pope know what the majority of Ukrainians wanted because a vociferous minority of people, some genuine innocent pacific protestors, some neo Nazi nationalist thugs, some western backed opportunists, overthrew the elected government before there was a chance for a democratic process.

Nobody knows where the majority of the Ukraine lay on this issue at that time. And now we never will.

The west had the opportunity to let democracy take its course. We wouldn't practically have been any worse off and we would have had the moral high ground. We didn't, we are and we haven't. That's what was stupid and reprehensible about it all. We sold out on our own values and we didn't even get the result.

[Australian Dawn]

Russian mail order bride businesses and their clients will be the real winners.
All those unhappy, pretty young Ukrainian women looking for a good man to whisk them away to a happier life, far from the icy grip of Russia and President Putin.

My heart goes out to them.

[Rumplestilzskin]

Russian mail order bride businesses and their clients will be the real winners.
All those unhappy, pretty young Ukrainian women looking for a good man to whisk them away to a happier life, far from the icy grip of Russia and President Putin.

My heart goes out to them.

Unfortunately, most of the inhabitants of the Crimea seem to be ethnic Russians, with Crim Tatars as a 10 percent-ish minority, so you may have a bit less luck than you hoped. Not sure whether or not Ukrainians have ever been a majority of the inhabitants of the Crimea, but I could be wrong on that one.

If I wanted to be even approaching being serious then I would be tempted to make certain remarks about Kossovo. However, I can't be arsed will spare you that in this instance, so that the people with more interest in this matter can continue their discussions without feeling the need to break-off to reply to me.

[mcfonz]

And lastly 'better' depends on what version of the world you prefer. The issue I can see is that the majority of the Ukrainian people did not want to deal with Russia - they deemed the offer from the EU to be 'better'.

And that is my concern in a nutshell.

No it's not. You've made it quite clear that your idea of 'better' is the correct one - hence your prolonged and biased 'balanced' view.

How do you know the 'majority' wanted the EU?
You can't.
No-one can.

Because you can do a bit more research if you so desire. Rather than focus on this one incident you really need to look into Ukraine politics over recent history. You'll see that this isn't the first time that a political party has knit itself in tightly with Russia and been accused of corruption.

There was a vote where Yanukovych won - a free, fair, informed, observed by neutrals, vote.

You keep going back to this and it's a pretty shit argument. There are many examples of corrupt people winning legitimate elections - you can't keep waiving it around as if to say the people who may have elected him have to stick with him and everything he does until the next vote. If he is doing things that are unrepresentative and out of his jurisdiction they have every right to protest and take action - believe it or not, that can also be part of the democratic process.

He negotiated - that's what elected leaders do - and nearly got the deal with the EU but they laid down conditions - basically to overturn a legal decision - that were outwith his jurisdiction.

Iffy. Elected leaders may well negotiate - but quite often when it comes to making the decision they involve members of parliament or a select group of experts to go over it. And you keep stating things as if Russia didn't have conditions - they did.

He wouldn't deliver and they drove him into Putin's arms.

He could deliver but didn't want to. The 'legal' issue you are referring to is the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko. I shall just point this out, the EU, NATO and several human rights charities and activist groups that protest world wide have been lobbying for this since her trials began. You know why she was put to trial? You ever wonder why no one else was?

No-one - not you, not, me, not the EU, the USA, the Ukrainian people or the Pope know what the majority of Ukrainians wanted because a vociferous minority of people, some genuine innocent pacific protesters, some neo Nazi nationalist thugs, some western backed opportunists, overthrew the elected government before there was a chance for a democratic process.

I'm pretty sure they did not want Russia 'invading' and holding a proper military coup in the Crimea. I think I can also say with some confidence that they did not want the strings attached that the Russians were offering.

The problem here is really of blackmail. Again

Nobody knows where the majority of the Ukraine lay on this issue at that time. And now we never will.

Actually that is not entirely true. Again - you need to look into recent Ukrainian politics. A brief synopsis to it is that parliament were happy to do business with Russia so long as they were not ripped off or bullied/blackmailed by Russia. Tymoshenko had stood up to Russia on a couple of occasions after having to buy in oil through intermediaries of which some had quite horrific profiles (heads of Russian Maffia etc). She cut out the middle men.

The west had the opportunity to let democracy take its course. We wouldn't practically have been any worse off and we would have had the moral high ground. We didn't, we are and we haven't. That's what was stupid and reprehensible about it all. We sold out on our own values and we didn't even get the result.

You really need to look into what the Russians were offering. Then you may have a better, more balanced view.

"We, we, we" who the fuck are you talking about? The USA or the EU? I don't consider the US to be "we" or necessarily the same as the EU. You are also a fool if you think democracy could have been left to take it's course. It was already being eroded. Had we had stood there and watched, whilst holding the supposed moral high ground we could have ended up watching another Georgia. That's not democracy, that's permitting a bully to have their own way.

And this is what really fucking bugs me about you.

Everyone else's view is met with "how can you possibly know" when your own views have very little substance and yet are spouted as if fact or based on something more solid. I have said countless times now that this situation in the Ukraine is not a one off, an isolated incident, it has been bubbling there for quite some time. When you look into it further than this you will see that in the recent past their parliament has been trying to strike a balance. They don't want to cease dealing with Russia but they do not want to be held over a barrel by Russia either. Essentially they want to be like any other country and pick and choose the best deals for them.

Yanukovych has previous too.

The problem is that he Ukraine has not really been left alone for some time. And Russia's era under Putin has only made things worse as he has sought greater influence over nations - and not the positive type of influence either.