Most modern health systems, and the US is included in that, are capable of limiting the spread of CV-19 now that they know generally what to expect. As in Wuhan you might get a pocket of infection before authorities go full draconian crackdown but China as a whole is not going to suffer a 2% population hit and neither will any developed country. I believe the great risk remains in less capable systems and in particular, those with governments that will be slow to act for political rather than scientific reasons.
The economic effect however of reduced global travel and almost certain panic reactions might well hit global GDP up to a full 1% decline and as in all things, the poorer ends of the supply chain will suffer disproportionately.